View Full Version : questions about luck.
chloe 01-18-2006, 07:37 AM I think there is a lot of skill in poker and some luck. Sometimes I believe there is a lot of luck. I play my friend sometimes heads up play and I don't like saying I'm better than anyone but in this case I'm better than him. He loses a lot when we play and when we play with a bunch of people. I lost tonight though. I tried to think back and see what I did wrong. I'm sure I did a few things wrong here and there. It seemed like though, tonight was his night. He got cards dealt to him, hand by hand. After he beat me we even played just for fun with chips and he still got hand after hand after hand. I won a few hands but that was it. I wasn't really getting that much.
Do you guys believe that sometimes it's just not your day and you're not going to be getting the cards or do you believe its 100% your fault? I mean is there some way that one of us will beat Phil Ivey heads-up because it was one of his offdays and one of our luck days?
brylle 01-18-2006, 07:39 AM Holdem,
It is absolutely not 100% your fault. Some days the cards come, and some days they don't. It's that way for everybody.
If you asked most people what percentage of poker is skill and what percentage is luck, they'd probably say 90% luck and 10% skill. If you asked a poker player, he'd probably say 25% luck and 75% skill.
The truth is that over a short period of time -- a single tournament or a single session -- poker is far more about luck than skill. Maybe not 90% but I'd say at least 67%. If you get the cards, you can play a whole lot worse and still win. If you don't get them, you can play like a champion and you will lose, pure and simple.
That's over the short term. Over the long term -- 10,000 hands or so -- luck goes down to zero, and skill goes up to 100%. That's why you have to look at poker as a long-term activity. I realize it is hard to do after a loss, but that's the truth. And deep down inside, you know it is.
kibby 01-18-2006, 07:44 AM If your talking of holdem.I definitely think that some days aren't your days. I am sure that there is a probability study that you could do which would show you 'streaks' of both good and bad luck. I lost big last night to people I didn't think were any better than me. I am sure that I too made some mistakes here and there, but I didn't play poorly. I still lost big.
As for beating Phil Ivey on any given day, I can honestly say that there is no effiicient way that I could play with him (or any of the other pros) at this point.
Emerge 01-18-2006, 11:02 AM It's funny when people blame cards for losing. If you don't get the cards then fold. It's that simple. Yes sometimes people do get lucky on you. People who call on draws, and catch them on your top pair or two pairs or trips. That is when luck comes in. But luck has nothing to do with you being impatient and playing horrible hands and making horrible moves.
rnRobert 01-23-2006, 02:45 AM I think you could also have bad luck with not getting good starting hands though, maybe getting a lot of low unsuited or by having bad luck with getting beat on the river.
Nothing worse than having a bad day of bad beats.
Emerge 01-23-2006, 03:23 AM Getting beat on the river might be bad luck.
Starting hands has nothing to do with luck.
Omega 01-28-2006, 08:24 PM ^ That's the bottom line.
MySpades 02-01-2006, 10:25 PM Do you guys believe that sometimes it's just not your day and you're not going to be getting the cards or do you believe its 100% your fault? I mean is there some way that one of us will beat Phil Ivey heads-up because it was one of his offdays and one of our luck days?
It's possible to beat Phil Ivey every hand as long as you get a better hand than his everytime. The strategy in Poker is bluffing and calculating whether the odds are in your favor. If I have a 3 of a kind sevens and there is a 4, 5, 6, and 7 and 9 out on the table, there is a good chance that someone has a straight. That's where I see the strategy to poker comes in.
saint 02-11-2006, 02:37 PM Well, I believe when it is your bad day, that is all due to luck.
But it is up to your skill to cut the losses or to know when to quit.
But that takes a lot of self discipline as you do not know when all these bad hands will end though.
pokerphun22 03-03-2006, 10:22 PM Poker is not a game of luck my friend, thats your first mistake. If you have been believing poker is all luck, you should now know the answer to why you lose so many games :)
Crazyshooter 03-03-2006, 11:14 PM When i played poker at base camp, my friends said that i was the luckest guy alive. i wanted a 7 i got 7 i wanted 3 i got 3. and i never even knew how to play the damn game lol
IdeasFactory 03-06-2006, 04:09 PM Its more a game of luck when you play heads up because there is only two of you. But when It comes down to a ten seat table its down to skill and bluffing
pokerface 03-07-2006, 11:38 PM brylle is 100% right. Over an extended period you will be dealt the same cards as everyone else. Your fair share of pocket aces. It's how you play each hand that determines how much or little you eventually win. Say you play $5-$10 poker. If you play correctly, making the right decision just once an hour could save you between $10-30 dollars (assuming you fold at the flop instead of chasing a losing hand) Multiply that by all the hours you play and that is the difference between winning and losing - LONG TERM
rnRobert 03-08-2006, 12:51 AM Say you play $5-$10 poker. If you play correctly, making the right decision just once an hour could save you between $10-30 dollars (assuming you fold at the flop instead of chasing a losing hand) Multiply that by all the hours you play and that is the difference between winning and losing - LONG TERM
That's great information, something to really think about.
What would be the lowest cards to play going along those lines?
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